Anyone with a blog seems to make predictions for the new year, so I decided I’d have a go at it. These articles are always fun to read. Usually my predictions in the stock market have real money involved. However, these predictions will be a bit more lighthearted. Here we go:
1. Michael Grimm steps down from office and Staten Island elects another Republican. Michael Grimm has just pleaded guilty to charges of tax evasion at his restaurant. He faces up to 36 months of jail time. John Boehner made the congressman who took a topless selfie and posted it on Craigslist step down from office. Surely he will make Michael Grimm step down. Staten Island is heavily Republican and will vote for a Republican again. If they elected a potential criminal, it makes sense that they would again vote for the GOP.
2. Russia does not default. It seems as though everyone is predicting a Russian default, but if oil prices stabilize this will not occur. Russia is in much better shape than Venezuela. It only has a debt to GDP of 13% which is much lower than America’s. Last week the credit default swaps were predicting about a 30% chance of the country defaulting.
3. Oil trades at a average price that is above $70 per barrel. Right now oil is at $57 per barrel. The U.S. production will decrease in response to lower prices and demand will increase. The U.S. still consumes a huge amount of oil. The GDP number was just released. It had America growing at 5%. Oil cannot stay this low with the U.S. economy growing that fast.
4. McDonalds has a bounce back year. The fast food restaurant has had negative same store sales growth this year because of changing consumer tastes. The company will be overlapping these poor sales rates next year, which makes for an easy comparison. The new leaner menu should also help make the drive through line quicker which means more meals will be sold.
5. The Super Bowl will feature a rematch between the Broncos and the Seahawks. I’m going to predict that Peyton Manning wins this time.
6. Bitcoin is accepted by Amazon and reaches new highs in valuation. Bitcoin has been the worst performing currency in the world this year. If Amazon seeks to raise its profit margins, then Bitcoin would be a great way to do so. Obviously, if this announcement happened, the price of Bitcoin would skyrocket.
7. The 5o Shades of Grey movie does poorly at the box offices. I am not a movie buff, but I can’t see why couples would want to see such a movie near Valentine’s Day. The allure of the book was that it left things to the imagination, or so I’m told.
8. Elizabeth Warren does not run for President. This prediction is the one that I am the most sure about. She has denied it repeatedly. Why would she run for president? It would completely destroy the unity within the Democratic Party. She has no higher aspirations for office. She simply wants to try to eliminate Wall Street’s influence on politics. The thing that the media forgets is that she is very far left in terms of the political spectrum. She is further left than Barack Obama; this makes her unelectable.
That was fun! Don’t take any of these too seriously. Have a Merry Christmas!